UMECIT 3–4 Independiente de La Chorrera

UMECIT

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Independiente de La Chorrera

E. Díaz 61', 15'

R. Rodríguez 58'

V. Ávila 75', 48'

A. Stewart 74'

F. Garzón 42' (OG)

11/8/2023

Liga Panameña de Fútbol · Clausura - 16Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

UMECIT36%

×Draw28%

Independiente de La Chorrera36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMECITExpected goals in this matchIndependiente de La Chorrera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.18

UMECIT

1.17

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 129 away

1.23

creates per match

1.37

0.98

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

UMECIT

1.23

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.37

allows per match

UMECIT

0.98

Independiente de La Chorrera

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UMECIT+0.00on par

Independiente de La Chorrera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UMECIT ↓

Independiente de La Chorrera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

UMECIT or draw

64%

UMECIT or Independiente de La Chorrera

72%

Draw or Independiente de La Chorrera

64%

Winning margin

UMECIT wins by 2+

15%

Independiente de La Chorrera wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

UMECIT 1+ goals

69%

UMECIT 2+ goals

33%

UMECIT 3+ goals

11%

Independiente de La Chorrera 1+ goals

69%

Independiente de La Chorrera 2+ goals

33%

Independiente de La Chorrera 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

UMECIT (draw refunded)

50%

Independiente de La Chorrera (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UMECIT at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Independiente de La Chorrera away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UMECIT attack 1.23 + Independiente de La Chorrera defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Independiente de La Chorrera attack 1.37 + UMECIT defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

UMECIT scores more

36%

level

28%

Independiente de La Chorrera scores more

36%

UMECIT at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "UMECIT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

E. Díaz

26'

J. Castillo← R. Navarro

32'

A. Gudino

42'

F. GarzónOwn goal

45'

V. Medina

46'

A. Stewart← A. Morales

46'

K. Meneses← A. Gudiño

48'

58'

61'

69'

69'

J. Rodríguez← A. Cifuentes

71'

71'

74'

75'

81'

E. Mosquera← E. Palacios

82'

J. Fuentes

90'

D. Leal← R. Rodríguez

90'

V. Gómez← U. Maltez

UMECIT

Independiente

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Rodríguez

⚽2

▼

Díaz

Bosquez

Manager: J. Torres

71'▲Y. Reina←▼E. Gómez

71'▲A. Reina←▼E. Díaz

81'▲E. Mosquera←▼E. Palacios

90'▲D. Leal←▼R. Rodríguez

90'▲V. Gómez←▼U. Maltez

UMECIT substitutes

ReinaReinaMosqueraLealGómezMeléndezYela

Manager: F. Narvaez

26'▲J. Castillo←▼R. Navarro

46'▲A. Stewart←▼A. Morales

46'▲K. Meneses←▼A. Gudiño

69'▲E. Pinto←▼C. Small

69'▲J. Rodríguez←▼A. Cifuentes

Independiente de La Chorrera substitutes

CastilloStewartMenesesPintoRodríguezNúñezMurilloÁvilaDavisRamírez