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Umeå W vs Enskede W — Elitettan 2021

Umeå W
Umeå W
Preview
12:00
Enskede W
Enskede W
9/20/2026ElitettanElitettan · Round 19Umea Energi Arena
53%
Umeå W
model favours
53%22%26%
2–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Umeå W53%
×Draw22%
Enskede W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Umeå W
2.04
Enskede W
1.38

Umeå W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 6 away

creates per match

Umeå W
2.26
Enskede W
1.67

allows per match

Umeå W
1.09
Enskede W
1.83

finishing

Umeå W+0.00on par
Enskede W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Umeå W ↓

Enskede W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Umeå W or draw
74%
Umeå W or Enskede W
78%
Draw or Enskede W
47%

Winning margin

Umeå W wins by 2+
31%
Enskede W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Umeå W 1+ goals
87%
Umeå W 2+ goals
60%
Umeå W 3+ goals
33%
Enskede W 1+ goals
75%
Enskede W 2+ goals
40%
Enskede W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Umeå W (draw refunded)
67%
Enskede W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Umeå W at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.09 · 57 matches

Enskede W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Umeå W attack 2.26 + Enskede W defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Enskede W attack 1.67 + Umeå W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Umeå W scores more
53%
level
22%
Enskede W scores more
26%

Umeå W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Umeå W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LLLLW
W
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Umeå W face Enskede W (Elitettan)

Elitettan returns with Umeå W hosting Enskede W. Match starts September 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Umeå W host Enskede W at Umea Energi Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.