Ulsan Hyundai FC 4–1 Sangju Sangmu FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sangju Sangmu FC

B. Johnsen 79', 59'

Jung Seung-Hyun 37', 32'

Jung Won-Jin 4'

10/2/2020

K League 1 · Championship Round - 2Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC47%

×Draw25%

Sangju Sangmu FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulsan Hyundai FCExpected goals in this matchSangju Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.13

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.55

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.13

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 37% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 101 away

1.75

creates per match

1.24

1.01

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.75

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.24

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.01

Sangju Sangmu FC

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Sangju Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Sangju Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw

72%

Ulsan Hyundai FC or Sangju Sangmu FC

75%

Draw or Sangju Sangmu FC

53%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

24%

Sangju Sangmu FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

79%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

46%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

20%

Sangju Sangmu FC 1+ goals

68%

Sangju Sangmu FC 2+ goals

31%

Sangju Sangmu FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

63%

Sangju Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.01 · 140 matches

Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.75 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.24 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

47%

level

25%

Sangju Sangmu FC scores more

28%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Seung-hyun Jung

Ulsan Hyundai FC · D

9.2

Match Events

4'

Jung Won-Jin

32'

Jung Seung-Hyun↳ Hong Chul

37'

Jung Seung-Hyun↳ Park Jeong-In

46'

Park Jeong-In← B. Johnsen

54'

Oh Se-Hun← Park Dong-Jin

59'

B. Johnsen↳ Hong Chul

64'

Jung Won-Jin← Jeong Jae-Hee

72'

J. Negao← Lee Keun-Ho

79'

B. Johnsen

81'

Hong Chul← Jung Hoon-Sung

84'

Lee Sang-GiMissed penalty

90'

Lee Keun-Ho← Song Seung-Min

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UlsanSangju

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots16

5Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots16

7On Target5

8Off Target6

0Blocked5

11Inside Box8

4Outside Box8

Passing

46%Possession54%

436Total Passes519

368Accurate Passes456

84%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Offsides0