Ulsan Hyundai FC 1–0 Pohang Steelers

Ulsan Hyundai FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pohang Steelers

3/1/2024

K League 1 · Round 1Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC46%

×Draw25%

Pohang Steelers29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ulsan Hyundai FCExpected goals in this matchPohang Steelers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.52

Pohang Steelers

1.15

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 154 away

1.75

creates per match

1.32

0.98

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.75

Pohang Steelers

1.32

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC

0.98

Pohang Steelers

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Pohang Steelers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Pohang Steelers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw

71%

Ulsan Hyundai FC or Pohang Steelers

75%

Draw or Pohang Steelers

54%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

23%

Pohang Steelers wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

78%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

45%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

20%

Pohang Steelers 1+ goals

68%

Pohang Steelers 2+ goals

32%

Pohang Steelers 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

61%

Pohang Steelers (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 156 matches

Pohang Steelers away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.28 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.75 + Pohang Steelers defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pohang Steelers attack 1.32 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

46%

level

25%

Pohang Steelers scores more

29%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff