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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors — K League 1 2026

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors
12/3/2023K League 1K League 1 · Championship Round - 5Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 154+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC38%
×Draw26%
Jeonbuk Motors35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.34
Jeonbuk Motors
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 156 home / 154 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.75
Jeonbuk Motors
1.55

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.98
Jeonbuk Motors
0.94

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
65%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeonbuk Motors
74%
Draw or Jeonbuk Motors
62%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
17%
Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
74%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
39%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
15%
Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals
72%
Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals
36%
Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
52%
Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 156 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.94 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.75 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.34

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.55 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
38%
level
26%
Jeonbuk Motors scores more
35%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 in K League 1 on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in Ulsan.