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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
5/12/2024K League 1K League 1 · Round 12Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC48%
×Draw25%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.56
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.10

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 117 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.75
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.23

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.98
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.38

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
73%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
75%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
52%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
25%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
79%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
46%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
21%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
67%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
30%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
64%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 156 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.75 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
48%
level
25%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
27%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 2-2 in K League 1 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in Ulsan.