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Ulaanbaatar vs Erchim — Premier League 2020

Ulaanbaatar
Ulaanbaatar
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Erchim
Erchim
11/2/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Ulaanbaatar50%
×Draw19%
Erchim31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulaanbaatar
2.48
Erchim
1.94

Ulaanbaatar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 65 away

creates per match

Ulaanbaatar
3.00
Erchim
2.74

allows per match

Ulaanbaatar
1.14
Erchim
1.95

finishing

Ulaanbaatar+0.00on par
Erchim+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulaanbaatar ↓

Erchim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Ulaanbaatar or draw
69%
Ulaanbaatar or Erchim
81%
Draw or Erchim
50%

Winning margin

Ulaanbaatar wins by 2+
31%
Erchim wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ulaanbaatar 1+ goals
92%
Ulaanbaatar 2+ goals
70%
Ulaanbaatar 3+ goals
44%
Erchim 1+ goals
86%
Erchim 2+ goals
58%
Erchim 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Ulaanbaatar (draw refunded)
62%
Erchim (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulaanbaatar at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

Erchim away — creates 2.74, concedes 1.95 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulaanbaatar attack 3.00 + Erchim defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.48

Erchim attack 2.74 + Ulaanbaatar defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ulaanbaatar scores more
50%
level
19%
Erchim scores more
31%

Ulaanbaatar at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ulaanbaatar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ulaanbaatar 5–0 Erchim

Ulaanbaatar beat Erchim 5-0 in Premier League on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulaanbaatar.