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ULA FC vs Deportivo JBL del Zulia — Segunda División 2018

ULA FC
ULA FC
FT
1 – 4
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
5/11/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 14Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida (Mérida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

ULA FC52%
×Draw23%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ULA FC
1.83
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.20

ULA FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 44 away

creates per match

ULA FC
1.62
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
1.02

allows per match

ULA FC
1.38
Deportivo JBL del Zulia
2.05

finishing

ULA FC+0.00on par
Deportivo JBL del Zulia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ULA FC ↓

Deportivo JBL del Zulia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ULA FC or draw
75%
ULA FC or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
77%
Draw or Deportivo JBL del Zulia
48%

Winning margin

ULA FC wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

ULA FC 1+ goals
84%
ULA FC 2+ goals
54%
ULA FC 3+ goals
28%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

ULA FC (draw refunded)
68%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ULA FC at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Deportivo JBL del Zulia away — creates 1.02, concedes 2.05 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ULA FC attack 1.62 + Deportivo JBL del Zulia defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.83

Deportivo JBL del Zulia attack 1.02 + ULA FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

ULA FC scores more
52%
level
23%
Deportivo JBL del Zulia scores more
25%

ULA FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "ULA FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: ULA FC 1–4 Deportivo JBL del Zulia

Deportivo JBL del Zulia beat ULA FC 4-1 in Segunda División on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano de Mérida (Mérida).