Uherský Brod 0–1 Slovan Rosice: Result & Stats

Uherský Brod

FT

0 – 1

Slovan Rosice

8/31/2019

3. liga - MSFL · MSFL - 5Orelský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Uherský Brod41%

×Draw26%

Slovan Rosice34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uherský BrodExpected goals in this matchSlovan Rosice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.27

Uherský Brod

1.42

Slovan Rosice

1.27

Uherský Brod creates 12% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 66 away

1.59

creates per match

1.27

1.26

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Uherský Brod

1.59

Slovan Rosice

1.27

allows per match

Uherský Brod

1.26

Slovan Rosice

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uherský Brod+0.00on par

Slovan Rosice+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uherský Brod ↓

Slovan Rosice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Uherský Brod or draw

66%

Uherský Brod or Slovan Rosice

74%

Draw or Slovan Rosice

59%

Winning margin

Uherský Brod wins by 2+

19%

Slovan Rosice wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Uherský Brod 1+ goals

76%

Uherský Brod 2+ goals

41%

Uherský Brod 3+ goals

17%

Slovan Rosice 1+ goals

72%

Slovan Rosice 2+ goals

36%

Slovan Rosice 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Uherský Brod (draw refunded)

55%

Slovan Rosice (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uherský Brod at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Slovan Rosice away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.24 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uherský Brod attack 1.59 + Slovan Rosice defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.42

Slovan Rosice attack 1.27 + Uherský Brod defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Uherský Brod scores more

41%

level

26%

Slovan Rosice scores more

34%

Uherský Brod at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Uherský Brod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff