UE Santa Coloma 1–0 Penya Encarnada: Result & Stats

UE Santa Coloma

FT

1 – 0

Penya Encarnada

1/26/2020

Copa Constitució · Quarter-finalsCentre d'Entrenament de la FAF 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

UE Santa Coloma68%

×Draw19%

Penya Encarnada13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UE Santa ColomaExpected goals in this matchPenya Encarnada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

0.80

UE Santa Coloma

2.15

Penya Encarnada

0.80

UE Santa Coloma creates 169% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.30

creates per match

1.00

0.60

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

UE Santa Coloma

2.30

Penya Encarnada

1.00

allows per match

UE Santa Coloma

0.60

Penya Encarnada

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UE Santa Coloma+0.00on par

Penya Encarnada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Santa Coloma ↓

Penya Encarnada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

UE Santa Coloma or draw

87%

UE Santa Coloma or Penya Encarnada

81%

Draw or Penya Encarnada

32%

Winning margin

UE Santa Coloma wins by 2+

44%

Penya Encarnada wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

UE Santa Coloma 1+ goals

88%

UE Santa Coloma 2+ goals

63%

UE Santa Coloma 3+ goals

36%

Penya Encarnada 1+ goals

55%

Penya Encarnada 2+ goals

19%

Penya Encarnada 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

UE Santa Coloma (draw refunded)

84%

Penya Encarnada (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Santa Coloma at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

Penya Encarnada away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Santa Coloma attack 2.30 + Penya Encarnada defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Penya Encarnada attack 1.00 + UE Santa Coloma defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

UE Santa Coloma scores more

68%

level

19%

Penya Encarnada scores more

13%

UE Santa Coloma at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "UE Santa Coloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff