UE Santa Coloma 0–0 FC Santa Coloma: Result & Stats

UE Santa Coloma

FT

0 – 0

FC Santa Coloma

7/26/2020

Copa Constitució · Semi-finalsEstadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

UE Santa Coloma41%

×Draw28%

FC Santa Coloma31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UE Santa ColomaExpected goals in this matchFC Santa Coloma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

UE Santa Coloma

1.29

FC Santa Coloma

1.08

UE Santa Coloma creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

2.30

creates per match

1.57

0.60

allows per match

0.29

creates per match

UE Santa Coloma

2.30

FC Santa Coloma

1.57

allows per match

UE Santa Coloma

0.60

FC Santa Coloma

0.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UE Santa Coloma+0.00on par

FC Santa Coloma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Santa Coloma ↓

FC Santa Coloma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

UE Santa Coloma or draw

69%

UE Santa Coloma or FC Santa Coloma

72%

Draw or FC Santa Coloma

59%

Winning margin

UE Santa Coloma wins by 2+

19%

FC Santa Coloma wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

UE Santa Coloma 1+ goals

72%

UE Santa Coloma 2+ goals

37%

UE Santa Coloma 3+ goals

14%

FC Santa Coloma 1+ goals

66%

FC Santa Coloma 2+ goals

29%

FC Santa Coloma 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

UE Santa Coloma (draw refunded)

57%

FC Santa Coloma (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Santa Coloma at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.60 · 10 matches

FC Santa Coloma away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Santa Coloma attack 2.30 + FC Santa Coloma defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

FC Santa Coloma attack 1.57 + UE Santa Coloma defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

UE Santa Coloma scores more

41%

level

28%

FC Santa Coloma scores more

31%

UE Santa Coloma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UE Santa Coloma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff