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UE Engordany vs Carroi — 1a Divisió 2019

UE Engordany
UE Engordany
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Carroi
Carroi
5/16/20211a Divisió1a Divisió · Relegation Round - 5Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

UE Engordany48%
×Draw24%
Carroi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UE Engordany
1.74
Carroi
1.29

UE Engordany creates 35% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 67 away

creates per match

UE Engordany
1.38
Carroi
0.84

allows per match

UE Engordany
1.74
Carroi
2.10

finishing

UE Engordany+0.00on par
Carroi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UE Engordany ↓

Carroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

UE Engordany or draw
71%
UE Engordany or Carroi
76%
Draw or Carroi
52%

Winning margin

UE Engordany wins by 2+
26%
Carroi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UE Engordany 1+ goals
82%
UE Engordany 2+ goals
52%
UE Engordany 3+ goals
25%
Carroi 1+ goals
72%
Carroi 2+ goals
37%
Carroi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

UE Engordany (draw refunded)
63%
Carroi (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UE Engordany at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 53 matches

Carroi away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.10 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UE Engordany attack 1.38 + Carroi defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.74

Carroi attack 0.84 + UE Engordany defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UE Engordany scores more
48%
level
24%
Carroi scores more
29%

UE Engordany at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UE Engordany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisió: UE Engordany 1–1 Carroi

UE Engordany and Carroi drew 1-1 in 1a Divisió on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.