Udinese 0–4 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Napoli

H. Lozano 84'

K. Koulibaly 52'

A. Rrahmani 35'

V. Osimhen 24'

9/20/2021

Serie A · Round 4Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Udinese28%

×Draw28%

Napoli44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.32

Udinese

1.00

Napoli

1.32

Napoli creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.13

creates per match

1.42

1.23

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Udinese

1.13

Napoli

1.42

allows per match

Udinese

1.23

Napoli

0.87

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.16scores less

Napoli+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

56%

Udinese or Napoli

72%

Draw or Napoli

72%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

10%

Napoli wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

63%

Udinese 2+ goals

26%

Udinese 3+ goals

8%

Napoli 1+ goals

73%

Napoli 2+ goals

38%

Napoli 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

39%

Napoli (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Napoli defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Napoli attack 1.42 + Udinese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Udinese scores more

28%

level

28%

Napoli scores more

44%

Napoli at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

A. Rrahmani

Napoli · D

8.5

Match Events

24'

V. Osimhen↳ L. Insigne

35'

A. Rrahmani↳ K. Koulibaly

52'

K. Koulibaly↳ Fabián Ruiz

56'

Samir

64'

J. Makengo← R. Pereyra

64'

Beto← Deulofeu

65'

Nahuel Molina

71'

H. Lozano← M. Politano

71'

P. Zieliński← L. Insigne

72'

L. Samardžić← T. Arslan

72'

M. Zeegelaar← J. Stryger Larsen

81'

A. Petagna← V. Osimhen

81'

A. Ounas← Fabián Ruiz

82'

84'

85'

86'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseNapoli

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots18

2Corners5

10Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots18

1On Target8

5Off Target7

3Blocked3

1Inside Box13

8Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

385Total Passes643

338Accurate Passes588

88%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3