Udinese 0–3 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Napoli

M. Rog 85'

D. Mertens 82' (pen)

Fabián Ruiz 14'

10/20/2018

Serie A · Round 9Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Udinese29%

×Draw28%

Napoli43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.27

Udinese

0.99

Napoli

1.27

Napoli creates 28% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

1.08

creates per match

1.37

1.18

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Napoli

1.37

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Napoli

0.89

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Napoli+0.07on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

57%

Udinese or Napoli

72%

Draw or Napoli

71%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

11%

Napoli wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

63%

Udinese 2+ goals

26%

Udinese 3+ goals

8%

Napoli 1+ goals

72%

Napoli 2+ goals

36%

Napoli 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

40%

Napoli (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.89 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Napoli defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.99

Napoli attack 1.37 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Udinese scores more

29%

level

28%

Napoli scores more

43%

Napoli at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

O. Karnezis

Napoli · G

8.3

Match Events

4'

Fabián Ruiz← S. Verdi

14'

Fabián Ruiz

15'

Ignacio Pussetto

35'

N. Opoku← W. Troost-Ekong

36'

45'

56'

57'

59'

68'

74'

79'

82'

D. MertensPenalty

85'

M. Rog← P. Zieliński

85'

M. Rog↳ D. Mertens

86'

M. Wagué← B. Nuytinck

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseNapoli

Overview

39%Possession61%

11Total Shots14

3Corners5

12Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots14

5On Target4

3Off Target6

3Blocked4

8Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

39%Possession61%

424Total Passes656

336Accurate Passes557

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2