Udinese 1–1 Lecce: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lecce

Beto 68'

L. Colombo 33'

11/4/2022

Serie A · Round 13Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Udinese45%

×Draw28%

Lecce27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchLecce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.98

Udinese

1.35

Lecce

0.98

Udinese creates 38% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 34 away

1.13

creates per match

0.73

1.23

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Udinese

1.13

Lecce

0.73

allows per match

Udinese

1.23

Lecce

1.57

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.16scores less

Lecce-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Lecce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

73%

Udinese or Lecce

72%

Draw or Lecce

55%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

21%

Lecce wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

74%

Udinese 2+ goals

39%

Udinese 3+ goals

15%

Lecce 1+ goals

62%

Lecce 2+ goals

26%

Lecce 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

62%

Lecce (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Lecce defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lecce attack 0.73 + Udinese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Udinese scores more

45%

level

28%

Lecce scores more

27%

Udinese at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Beto

Udinese · F

7.5

Match Events

33'

37'

45+1'

55'

57'

K. Dermaku← S. Umtiti

64'

I. Success← T. Arslan

68'

Beto↳ I. Success

69'

Valentin Gendrey

73'

F. Di Francesco← Gabriel Strefezza

73'

A. Ceesay← L. Colombo

79'

M. Jajalo← L. Samardžić

80'

B. Nuytinck← K. Ehizibue

83'

R. Oudin← L. Banda

83'

K. Bistrović← JoanGonzàlez

87'

Rémi Oudin

89'

F. Ebosele← Deulofeu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseLecce

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots9

3Corners2

12Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots9

5On Target1

5Off Target4

6Blocked4

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

456Total Passes339

354Accurate Passes229

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0

Serie A: Udinese 1–1 Lecce

Udinese and Lecce drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 4, 2022.

Goals: L. Colombo (33'), Beto (68').

Udinese controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Lecce — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Udinese 1–1 Lecce