Udinese 0–2 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Juventus

Cristiano Ronaldo 37'

R. Bentancur 33'

10/6/2018

Serie A · Round 8Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Udinese29%

×Draw28%

Juventus43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.32

Udinese

1.04

Juventus

1.32

Juventus creates 27% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 33 away

1.08

creates per match

1.46

1.18

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Juventus

1.46

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Juventus

1.00

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Juventus-0.07on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

57%

Udinese or Juventus

72%

Draw or Juventus

71%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

11%

Juventus wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

65%

Udinese 2+ goals

28%

Udinese 3+ goals

9%

Juventus 1+ goals

73%

Juventus 2+ goals

38%

Juventus 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

41%

Juventus (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Juventus defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Juventus attack 1.46 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Udinese scores more

29%

level

28%

Juventus scores more

43%

Juventus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

João Cancelo

Juventus · D

8.6

Match Events

33'

R. Bentancur↳ João Cancelo

37'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ M. Mandžukić

46'

E. Can← B. Matuidi

50'

Rodrigo De Paul

62'

I. Pussetto← V. Behrami

66'

F. Bernardeschi← P. Dybala

75'

Ł. Teodorczyk← A. Barák

79'

Samir

82'

Kevin Lasagna

86'

Felipe Vizeu← K. Lasagna

89'

A. Barzagli← M. Pjanić

90'

Mario Mandžukić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseJuventus

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots21

4Corners8

14Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots21

3On Target7

3Off Target8

3Blocked6

2Inside Box16

7Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

421Total Passes629

356Accurate Passes562

85%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

Serie A: Udinese 0–2 Juventus

Juventus beat Udinese 2-0 in Serie A on October 6, 2018.

Goals: R. Bentancur (33'), Cristiano Ronaldo (37').

Juventus controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 9.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Juventus — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Udinese 0–2 Juventus