Udinese 2–2 Genoa: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Genoa

K. Lasagna 73'

S. Fofana 44'

A. Pinamonti 90+6'

G. Pandev 81'

7/5/2020

Serie A · Round 30Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Udinese40%

×Draw28%

Genoa32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchGenoa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.11

Udinese

1.27

Genoa

1.11

Udinese creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

1.08

creates per match

1.04

1.18

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Genoa

1.04

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Genoa

1.47

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Genoa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

68%

Udinese or Genoa

72%

Draw or Genoa

60%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

18%

Genoa wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

72%

Udinese 2+ goals

36%

Udinese 3+ goals

14%

Genoa 1+ goals

67%

Genoa 2+ goals

30%

Genoa 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

55%

Genoa (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Genoa attack 1.04 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Udinese scores more

40%

level

28%

Genoa scores more

32%

Udinese at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Seko Fofana

Udinese · M

7.9

Match Events

10'

K. Sema

25'

J. Stryger Larsen

42'

E. Goldaniga

44'

S. Fofana↳ R. De Paul

46'

V. Behrami← A. Pinamonti

46'

C. Romero← A. Soumaoro

58'

J. Stryger Larsen← H. ter Avest

58'

I. Nestorovski← S. Okaka

59'

I. Falque← G. Pandev

63'

S. Sturaro

68'

K. Sema← M. Zeegelaar

73'

K. Lasagna↳ S. Fofana

77'

A. Sanabria← A. Favilli

81'

G. Pandev

82'

S. Fofana

82'

K. Lasagna← L. Teodorczyk

83'

S. Fofana← Walace

83'

F. Cassata← M. Destro

90+6'

A. PinamontiMissed penalty

90+6'

A. Pinamonti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseGenoa

Overview

46%Possession54%

7Total Shots8

2Corners4

13Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots8

4On Target4

3Off Target2

0Blocked2

5Inside Box5

2Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

426Total Passes500

344Accurate Passes404

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Serie A: Udinese 2–2 Genoa

Udinese and Genoa drew 2-2 in Serie A on July 5, 2020.

Goals: S. Fofana (44'), K. Lasagna (73'), G. Pandev (81'), A. Pinamonti (90+6').

Genoa controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Udinese 2–2 Genoa