Udinese 2–1 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cagliari

Seko Fofana 85'

Rodrigo De Paul 39'

João Pedro 84'

12/21/2019

Serie A · Round 17Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Udinese44%

×Draw27%

Cagliari29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.06

Udinese

1.38

Cagliari

1.06

Udinese creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

1.08

creates per match

0.95

1.18

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Cagliari

0.95

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Cagliari

1.67

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

71%

Udinese or Cagliari

73%

Draw or Cagliari

56%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

21%

Cagliari wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

75%

Udinese 2+ goals

40%

Udinese 3+ goals

16%

Cagliari 1+ goals

65%

Cagliari 2+ goals

29%

Cagliari 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

60%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Udinese scores more

44%

level

27%

Cagliari scores more

29%

Udinese at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

Seko Fofana

Udinese · M

8.7

Match Events

30'

Fabio Pisacane

39'

Rodrigo De Paul↳ Seko Fofana

46'

Luca Pellegrini← Charalampos Lykogiannis

54'

Marko Rog

60'

Alberto Cerri← Giovanni Simeone

63'

Rolando Mandragora

66'

Hidde ter Avest← Ken Sema

69'

Sebastien De Maio

70'

Mato Jajalo← Rodrigo De Paul

79'

Ignacio Pussetto← Kevin Lasagna

81'

Daniele Ragatzu← Marko Rog

84'

João Pedro↳ Paolo Faragò

85'

89'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseCagliari

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots14

2Corners1

13Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots14

2On Target1

6Off Target11

6Blocked2

11Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

397Total Passes586

313Accurate Passes508

79%Pass Accuracy87%

Discipline

13Fouls14

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Udinese vs Cagliari

Udinese beat Cagliari 2-1 in Serie A on December 21, 2019.

Goals: Rodrigo De Paul (39'), João Pedro (84'), Seko Fofana (85').

Cagliari controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Cagliari — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Udinese vs Cagliari