Udinese 2–0 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cagliari

V. Behrami 57'

I. Pussetto 39'

12/29/2018

Serie A · Round 19Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Udinese44%

×Draw27%

Cagliari29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.06

Udinese

1.38

Cagliari

1.06

Udinese creates 30% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 25 away

1.08

creates per match

0.95

1.18

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Cagliari

0.95

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Cagliari

1.67

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

71%

Udinese or Cagliari

73%

Draw or Cagliari

56%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

21%

Cagliari wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

75%

Udinese 2+ goals

40%

Udinese 3+ goals

16%

Cagliari 1+ goals

65%

Cagliari 2+ goals

29%

Cagliari 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

60%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Udinese scores more

44%

level

27%

Cagliari scores more

29%

Udinese at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

I. Pussetto

Udinese · M

8.8

Match Events

26'

Bram Nuytinck

39'

I. Pussetto↳ J. Larsen

44'

Jens Stryger Larsen

45'

Diego Farias

50'

Luca Ceppitelli

57'

V. Behrami↳ I. Pussetto

62'

65'

66'

76'

78'

79'

A. Balić← I. Pussetto

85'

Filip Bradarić

90'

G. Pezzella← J. Larsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseCagliari

Overview

48%Possession52%

26Total Shots7

6Corners6

13Fouls15

Shots

26Total Shots7

5On Target1

13Off Target3

8Blocked3

9Inside Box5

17Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

402Total Passes441

346Accurate Passes360

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Udinese vs Cagliari

Udinese beat Cagliari 2-0 in Serie A on December 29, 2018.

Goals: I. Pussetto (39'), V. Behrami (57').

Cagliari controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 26.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Cagliari — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Udinese vs Cagliari