Udinese 1–2 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bologna

Beto 10'

S. Posch 80'

N. Sansone 59'

1/15/2023

Serie A · Round 18Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Udinese36%

×Draw29%

Bologna36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

Udinese

1.13

Bologna

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

1.13

creates per match

1.02

1.23

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Udinese

1.13

Bologna

1.02

allows per match

Udinese

1.23

Bologna

1.13

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.16scores less

Bologna+0.54scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

64%

Udinese or Bologna

71%

Draw or Bologna

64%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

15%

Bologna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

68%

Udinese 2+ goals

31%

Udinese 3+ goals

11%

Bologna 1+ goals

68%

Bologna 2+ goals

31%

Bologna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

50%

Bologna (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Bologna away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Bologna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bologna attack 1.02 + Udinese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Udinese scores more

36%

level

29%

Bologna scores more

36%

Udinese at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

J. Schouten

Bologna · M

7.5

Match Events

10'

Beto↳ I. Success

16'

BetoGoal cancelled

41'

Jhon Lucumí

45+1'

Nicola SansoneGoal cancelled

57'

Walace

59'

N. Sansone↳ N. Moro

62'

L. Samardžić← S. Lovrić

62'

T. Arslan← J. Makengo

74'

E. Ebosse← N. Pérez

74'

A. Cambiaso← C. Lykogiannis

74'

R. Soriano← M. Aebischer

75'

Roberto Soriano

80'

S. Posch↳ J. Schouten

84'

I. Nestorovski← Walace

85'

D. Kasius← R. Orsolini

85'

M. Barrow← N. Sansone

90+1'

Lewis Ferguson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseBologna

Overview

51%Possession49%

20Total Shots15

6Corners4

10Fouls17

Shots

20Total Shots15

4On Target2

9Off Target9

7Blocked4

15Inside Box8

5Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

379Total Passes366

297Accurate Passes274

78%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls17

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Udinese vs Bologna

Bologna beat Udinese 2-1 in Serie A on January 15, 2023.

Goals: Beto (10'), N. Sansone (59'), S. Posch (80').

Udinese controlled possession (51%) and registered 20 shots to 15.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Bologna — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Udinese vs Bologna