Udinese 1–1 Bologna: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bologna

Beto 82'

M. Barrow 67'

10/17/2021

Serie A · Round 8Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Udinese36%

×Draw29%

Bologna36%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchBologna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

Udinese

1.13

Bologna

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

1.13

creates per match

1.02

1.23

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Udinese

1.13

Bologna

1.02

allows per match

Udinese

1.23

Bologna

1.13

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.54scores more than expected

finishing

Udinese-0.16scores less

Bologna+0.54scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Bologna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

64%

Udinese or Bologna

71%

Draw or Bologna

64%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

15%

Bologna wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

68%

Udinese 2+ goals

31%

Udinese 3+ goals

11%

Bologna 1+ goals

68%

Bologna 2+ goals

31%

Bologna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

50%

Bologna (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Bologna away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + Bologna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bologna attack 1.02 + Udinese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Udinese scores more

36%

level

29%

Bologna scores more

36%

Udinese at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Udinese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Silvestri

Udinese · G

8.7

Match Events

23'

38'

38'

49'

56'

K. Michael← M. Svanberg

67'

M. Barrow↳ N. Domínguez

68'

I. Pussetto← D. Udogie

68'

N. Molina← J. Stryger Larsen

68'

A. Skov Olsen← A. Theate

68'

G. Medel← L. Binks

72'

E. Vignato← K. Michael

81'

Emanuel Vignato

82'

Beto↳ I. Pussetto

83'

83'

84'

85'

86'

89'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseBologna

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots24

2Corners8

15Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots24

2On Target11

5Off Target8

3Blocked5

7Inside Box10

3Outside Box14

Passing

41%Possession59%

340Total Passes495

271Accurate Passes436

80%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

10Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls11

3Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Udinese vs Bologna

Udinese and Bologna drew 1-1 in Serie A on October 17, 2021.

Goals: M. Barrow (67'), Beto (82').

Bologna controlled possession (59%) and registered 24 shots to 10.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.

Udinese vs Bologna — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Udinese vs Bologna