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Udinese vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

Udinese
Udinese
FT
2 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Atalanta
Atalanta
Beto 88'
B. Djimsiti 59' (OG)
M. Pessina 90+2'
J. Mæhle 89'
L. Muriel 76', 22'
R. Malinovskyi 43'
M. Pašalić 17'
1/9/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 21Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Udinese33%
×Draw28%
Atalanta39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese
1.14
Atalanta
1.27

Atalanta creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

creates per match

Udinese
1.08
Atalanta
1.37

allows per match

Udinese
1.18
Atalanta
1.19

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less
Atalanta+0.09on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Udinese or draw
61%
Udinese or Atalanta
72%
Draw or Atalanta
67%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+
13%
Atalanta wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals
68%
Udinese 2+ goals
32%
Udinese 3+ goals
11%
Atalanta 1+ goals
72%
Atalanta 2+ goals
36%
Atalanta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)
46%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Atalanta defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atalanta attack 1.37 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Udinese scores more
33%
level
28%
Atalanta scores more
39%

Atalanta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
L. MurielAtalantaAtalanta · F
9.2

Match Events

17'
M. Pašalić
22'
L. Muriel↳ R. Malinovskyi
30'
Rodrigo Becão
43'
R. Malinovskyi
44'
Gerard Deulofeu
45'
Marten de Roon
46'
M. Pessina← M. de Roon
59'
B. DjimsitiOwn goal
66'
B. Soppy← D. Udogie
73'
H. Hateboer← G. Pezzella
73'
A. Miranchuk← M. Pašalić
74'
I. Success← I. Pussetto
76'
L. Muriel↳ A. Miranchuk
77'
Berat Djimsiti
79'
J. Iličić← L. Muriel
88'
Beto↳ I. Success
89'
J. Mæhle↳ A. Miranchuk
90'
G. Cittadini← B. Djimsiti
90+2'
M. Pessina↳ J. Mæhle

Possession

40%Udinese

Shots

8Udinese

Pass accuracy

47%Udinese

Statistics

UdineseAtalanta
Overview
40%Possession60%
8Total Shots21
2Corners5
9Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots21
4On Target7
3Off Target3
1Blocked11
4Inside Box17
4Outside Box4
Passing
40%Possession60%
413Total Passes633
320Accurate Passes543
77%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Serie A: Udinese 2–6 Atalanta

Atalanta beat Udinese 6-2 in Serie A on January 9, 2022.

Goals: M. Pašalić (17'), L. Muriel (22', 76'), R. Malinovskyi (43'), B. Djimsiti (59' o.g.), Beto (88'), J. Mæhle (89'), M. Pessina (90+2').

Atalanta controlled possession (60%) and registered 21 shots to 8.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.