Udinese 1–3 Atalanta: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Atalanta

K. Lasagna 12'

D. Zapata 80', 62', 2'

12/9/2018

Serie A · Round 15Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Udinese34%

×Draw28%

Atalanta38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.22

Udinese

1.15

Atalanta

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

1.08

creates per match

1.26

1.18

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

Atalanta

1.26

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

Atalanta

1.22

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

Atalanta+0.05on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

62%

Udinese or Atalanta

72%

Draw or Atalanta

66%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

14%

Atalanta wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

68%

Udinese 2+ goals

32%

Udinese 3+ goals

11%

Atalanta 1+ goals

70%

Atalanta 2+ goals

34%

Atalanta 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

48%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + Atalanta defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atalanta attack 1.26 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Udinese scores more

34%

level

28%

Atalanta scores more

38%

Atalanta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Atalanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91

D. Zapata

Atalanta · F

9.7

Match Events

2'

D. Zapata↳ Rafael Tolói

12'

K. Lasagna↳ M. D'Alessandro

45'

Jens Stryger Larsen

58'

M. Barrow← E. Rigoni

62'

D. Zapata↳ M. Barrow

66'

I. Pussetto← M. DAlessandro

73'

Felipe Vizeu← G. Pezzella

76'

Andrea Masiello

78'

T. Castagne← R. Gosens

80'

D. Zapata↳ H. Hateboer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseAtalanta

Overview

30%Possession70%

7Total Shots19

2Corners7

16Fouls6

Shots

7Total Shots19

1On Target4

4Off Target9

2Blocked6

5Inside Box15

2Outside Box4

Passing

30%Possession70%

315Total Passes706

230Accurate Passes620

73%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

5Offsides0