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Udinese vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Udinese
Udinese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
N. Molina 15'
L. Pellegrini 90+4' (pen)
3/13/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 29Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Udinese36%
×Draw27%
AS Roma37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese
1.23
AS Roma
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

creates per match

Udinese
1.13
AS Roma
1.32

allows per match

Udinese
1.23
AS Roma
1.34

finishing

Udinese-0.16scores less
AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw
63%
Udinese or AS Roma
73%
Draw or AS Roma
64%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+
15%
AS Roma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals
71%
Udinese 2+ goals
35%
Udinese 3+ goals
13%
AS Roma 1+ goals
72%
AS Roma 2+ goals
36%
AS Roma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)
49%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.13 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.23

AS Roma attack 1.32 + Udinese defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Udinese scores more
36%
level
27%
AS Roma scores more
37%

AS Roma at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. JajaloUdineseUdinese · M
7.9

Match Events

15'
N. Molina
26'
Gerard Deulofeu
46'
S. El Shaarawy← Sérgio Oliveira
65'
F. Ohene-Gyan← N. Zalewski
65'
E. Shomurodov← T. Abraham
70'
Felix Afena-Gyan
73'
J. Veretout← R. Karsdorp
82'
M. Zeegelaar← N. Pérez
85'
Carles Pérez← G. Mancini
86'
Jean-Victor Makengo
87'
I. Pussetto← Deulofeu
87'
L. Samardžić← J. Makengo
88'
Roger Ibañez
90+2'
Rodrigo Becão
90+4'
L. PellegriniPenalty

Possession

36%Udinese

Shots

11Udinese

Pass accuracy

47%Udinese

Statistics

UdineseAS
Overview
36%Possession64%
11Total Shots10
6Corners4
16Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots10
5On Target2
5Off Target5
1Blocked3
6Inside Box5
5Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
328Total Passes587
257Accurate Passes508
78%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Serie A: Udinese 1–1 AS Roma

Udinese and AS Roma drew 1-1 in Serie A on March 13, 2022.

Goals: N. Molina (15'), L. Pellegrini (90+4' pen).

AS Roma controlled possession (64%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.