Udinese 0–4 AS Roma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Udinese

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

AS Roma

Aleksandar Kolarov 65' (pen)

Justin Kluivert 54'

Chris Smalling 51'

Nicolò Zaniolo 13'

10/30/2019

Serie A · Round 10Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Udinese35%

×Draw27%

AS Roma38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UdineseExpected goals in this matchAS Roma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.29

Udinese

1.22

AS Roma

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

1.08

creates per match

1.40

1.18

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Udinese

1.08

AS Roma

1.40

allows per match

Udinese

1.18

AS Roma

1.35

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less

AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

AS Roma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw

62%

Udinese or AS Roma

73%

Draw or AS Roma

65%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+

15%

AS Roma wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals

70%

Udinese 2+ goals

34%

Udinese 3+ goals

12%

AS Roma 1+ goals

72%

AS Roma 2+ goals

37%

AS Roma 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)

48%

AS Roma (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + AS Roma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Udinese scores more

35%

level

27%

AS Roma scores more

38%

AS Roma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Aleksandar Kolarov

AS Roma · D

8.6

Match Events

3'

Gianluca Mancini

13'

Nicolò Zaniolo↳ Aleksandar Kolarov

31'

Federico Fazio

33'

Edin Džeko

35'

Stefano Okaka

46'

Antonín Barák← Rolando Mandragora

47'

Mato Jajalo

50'

Antonín Barák

51'

Chris Smalling

54'

Justin Kluivert↳ Javier Pastore

55'

Ilija Nestorovski← Hidde ter Avest

65'

Aleksandar KolarovPenalty

68'

Rodrigo De Paul

70'

Yıldırım Mert Çetin← Javier Pastore

73'

Diego Perotti← Justin Kluivert

78'

Alessandro Florenzi← Nicolò Zaniolo

79'

Ignacio Pussetto← Kevin Lasagna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UdineseAS

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots13

5Corners3

16Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots13

4On Target6

4Off Target5

4Blocked2

8Inside Box9

4Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

503Total Passes406

428Accurate Passes319

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls16

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1