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Udinese vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Udinese
Udinese
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
R. de Paul 54'
11/24/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 13Dacia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Udinese35%
×Draw27%
AS Roma38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Udinese
1.22
AS Roma
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Udinese
1.08
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

Udinese
1.18
AS Roma
1.35

finishing

Udinese-0.15scores less
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Udinese or draw
62%
Udinese or AS Roma
73%
Draw or AS Roma
65%

Winning margin

Udinese wins by 2+
15%
AS Roma wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Udinese 1+ goals
70%
Udinese 2+ goals
34%
Udinese 3+ goals
12%
AS Roma 1+ goals
72%
AS Roma 2+ goals
37%
AS Roma 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Udinese (draw refunded)
48%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.18 · 29 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese attack 1.08 + AS Roma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Udinese defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Udinese scores more
35%
level
27%
AS Roma scores more
38%

AS Roma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. MussoUdineseUdinese · G
9.0

Match Events

54'
R. de Paul↳ I. Pussetto
64'
Rodrigo De Paul
64'
C. Ünder← J. Kluivert
65'
Valon Behrami
70'
G. Pezzella← Samir
71'
E. Džeko← P. Schick
79'
D. Machís← R. de Paul
79'
N. Zaniolo← Lorenzo Pellegrini
90+5'
M. D'Alessandro← I. Pussetto

Possession

24%Udinese

Shots

9Udinese

Pass accuracy

40%Udinese

Statistics

UdineseAS
Overview
24%Possession76%
9Total Shots26
0Corners12
8Fouls10
Shots
9Total Shots26
2On Target9
6Off Target13
1Blocked4
5Inside Box13
4Outside Box13
Passing
24%Possession76%
198Total Passes593
117Accurate Passes521
59%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
9Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Match Recap: Udinese vs AS Roma

Udinese beat AS Roma 1-0 in Serie A on November 24, 2018.

Goals: R. de Paul (54').

AS Roma controlled possession (76%) and registered 26 shots to 9.

The match was played at Dacia Arena in Udine.