Udinese U19 2–1 Reggiana U19: Result & Stats

Udinese U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Reggiana U19

12/18/2021

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 13Centro Sportivo Comunale Capocasale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Udinese U1962%

×Draw20%

Reggiana U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udinese U19Expected goals in this matchReggiana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.13

Udinese U19

2.24

Reggiana U19

1.13

Udinese U19 creates 98% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 86 away

2.18

creates per match

1.06

1.20

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Udinese U19

2.18

Reggiana U19

1.06

allows per match

Udinese U19

1.20

Reggiana U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udinese U19+0.00on par

Reggiana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U19 ↓

Reggiana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Udinese U19 or draw

82%

Udinese U19 or Reggiana U19

80%

Draw or Reggiana U19

38%

Winning margin

Udinese U19 wins by 2+

39%

Reggiana U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Udinese U19 1+ goals

89%

Udinese U19 2+ goals

65%

Udinese U19 3+ goals

38%

Reggiana U19 1+ goals

68%

Reggiana U19 2+ goals

31%

Reggiana U19 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)

77%

Reggiana U19 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Reggiana U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U19 attack 2.18 + Reggiana U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.24

Reggiana U19 attack 1.06 + Udinese U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Udinese U19 scores more

62%

level

20%

Reggiana U19 scores more

18%

Udinese U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Udinese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff