Udinese U19 2–2 Como U19: Result & Stats

Udinese U19

FT

2 – 2

Como U19

10/30/2021

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 7Centro Sportivo Comunale Capocasale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Udinese U1941%

×Draw23%

Como U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Udinese U19Expected goals in this matchComo U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.64

Udinese U19

1.76

Como U19

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 73 away

2.18

creates per match

2.08

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Udinese U19

2.18

Como U19

2.08

allows per match

Udinese U19

1.20

Como U19

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Udinese U19+0.00on par

Como U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Udinese U19 ↓

Como U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Udinese U19 or draw

64%

Udinese U19 or Como U19

77%

Draw or Como U19

59%

Winning margin

Udinese U19 wins by 2+

21%

Como U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Udinese U19 1+ goals

83%

Udinese U19 2+ goals

52%

Udinese U19 3+ goals

26%

Como U19 1+ goals

81%

Como U19 2+ goals

49%

Como U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Udinese U19 (draw refunded)

53%

Como U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Udinese U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

Como U19 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Udinese U19 attack 2.18 + Como U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.76

Como U19 attack 2.08 + Udinese U19 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Udinese U19 scores more

41%

level

23%

Como U19 scores more

36%

Udinese U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Udinese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff