UD Santa Marta 1–2 Becerril Campos: Result & Stats

UD Santa Marta

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Becerril Campos

11/25/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

UD Santa Marta46%

×Draw27%

Becerril Campos27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Santa MartaExpected goals in this matchBecerril Campos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.00

UD Santa Marta

1.41

Becerril Campos

1.00

UD Santa Marta creates 41% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 97 away

1.24

creates per match

1.02

0.99

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

UD Santa Marta

1.24

Becerril Campos

1.02

allows per match

UD Santa Marta

0.99

Becerril Campos

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Becerril Campos →

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw

73%

UD Santa Marta or Becerril Campos

73%

Draw or Becerril Campos

54%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

22%

Becerril Campos wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

76%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

41%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

17%

Becerril Campos 1+ goals

63%

Becerril Campos 2+ goals

26%

Becerril Campos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

63%

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more

46%

level

27%

Becerril Campos scores more

27%

UD Santa Marta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Becerril Campos

Becerril Campos beat UD Santa Marta 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto in Santa Marta de Tormes.

UD Santa Marta vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD Santa Marta vs Becerril Campos