UD Santa Marta 0–2 Arandina: Result & Stats

UD Santa Marta

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Arandina

Sergio Santa Cruz 66'

Ayoub 21'

11/27/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Estadio Municipal Alfonso San Casto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

UD Santa Marta36%

×Draw29%

Arandina35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD Santa MartaExpected goals in this matchArandina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.13

UD Santa Marta

1.14

Arandina

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 94 away

1.24

creates per match

1.26

0.99

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

UD Santa Marta

1.24

Arandina

1.26

allows per match

UD Santa Marta

0.99

Arandina

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Arandina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Santa Marta ↓

Arandina →

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

UD Santa Marta or draw

65%

UD Santa Marta or Arandina

71%

Draw or Arandina

64%

Winning margin

UD Santa Marta wins by 2+

15%

Arandina wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

UD Santa Marta 1+ goals

68%

UD Santa Marta 2+ goals

32%

UD Santa Marta 3+ goals

11%

Arandina 1+ goals

68%

Arandina 2+ goals

31%

Arandina 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)

50%

Arandina (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Santa Marta at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Arandina away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Santa Marta attack 1.24 + Arandina defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Arandina attack 1.26 + UD Santa Marta defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

UD Santa Marta scores more

36%

level

29%

Arandina scores more

35%

UD Santa Marta at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "UD Santa Marta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

Ayoub

46'

Asensio← Joel Gómez

46'

Ángel Lerma← Julio Lozano

60'

Fernando Bajo← Zazu

66'

Sergio Santa Cruz

75'

Átomo← Sergio Santa Cruz

75'

Alejandro Gómez← Mario García

78'

David Giráldez← Tomi

83'

Juán del Rincón← Koke González

83'

N. Romero← Ayoub

Arandina

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cruz

▼

García

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Mario Amatria

46'▲Asensio←▼Joel Gómez

46'▲Ángel Lerma←▼Julio Lozano

78'▲David Giráldez←▼Tomi

UD Santa Marta substitutes

AsensioLermaGiráldez

Manager: Álex Izquierdo

60'▲Fernando Bajo←▼Zazu

75'▲Átomo←▼Sergio Santa Cruz

75'▲Alejandro Gómez←▼Mario García

83'▲Juán del Rincón←▼Koke González

83'▲N. Romero←▼Ayoub

Arandina substitutes

BajoÁtomoGómezRincónRomero