UD San Fernando 1–1 Panadería Pulido

UD San Fernando

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Panadería Pulido

4/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 18Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

UD San Fernando51%

×Draw25%

Panadería Pulido24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD San FernandoExpected goals in this matchPanadería Pulido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.01

UD San Fernando

1.60

Panadería Pulido

1.01

UD San Fernando creates 58% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 94 away

1.99

creates per match

1.31

0.71

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

UD San Fernando

1.99

Panadería Pulido

1.31

allows per match

UD San Fernando

0.71

Panadería Pulido

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD San Fernando+0.00on par

Panadería Pulido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD San Fernando ↓

Panadería Pulido →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

UD San Fernando or draw

76%

UD San Fernando or Panadería Pulido

75%

Draw or Panadería Pulido

49%

Winning margin

UD San Fernando wins by 2+

27%

Panadería Pulido wins by 2+

Team goals

UD San Fernando 1+ goals

80%

UD San Fernando 2+ goals

47%

UD San Fernando 3+ goals

22%

Panadería Pulido 1+ goals

64%

Panadería Pulido 2+ goals

27%

Panadería Pulido 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD San Fernando (draw refunded)

68%

Panadería Pulido (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD San Fernando at home — creates 1.99, concedes 0.71 · 75 matches

Panadería Pulido away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.21 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD San Fernando attack 1.99 + Panadería Pulido defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.60

Panadería Pulido attack 1.31 + UD San Fernando defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

UD San Fernando scores more

51%

level

25%

Panadería Pulido scores more

24%

UD San Fernando at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UD San Fernando will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD San Fernando vs Panadería Pulido

UD San Fernando and Panadería Pulido drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Maspalomas in Gran Canaria.

UD San Fernando vs Panadería Pulido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: UD San Fernando vs Panadería Pulido