UD Ourense 3–0 Somozas: Result & Stats

UD Ourense

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Somozas

11/5/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio O Couto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

UD Ourense48%

×Draw26%

Somozas26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UD OurenseExpected goals in this matchSomozas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.01

UD Ourense

1.47

Somozas

1.01

UD Ourense creates 46% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 109 away

1.74

creates per match

1.05

0.97

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

UD Ourense

1.74

Somozas

1.05

allows per match

UD Ourense

0.97

Somozas

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Somozas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Ourense ↓

Somozas →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

UD Ourense or draw

74%

UD Ourense or Somozas

74%

Draw or Somozas

52%

Winning margin

UD Ourense wins by 2+

24%

Somozas wins by 2+

Team goals

UD Ourense 1+ goals

77%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

43%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

18%

Somozas 1+ goals

64%

Somozas 2+ goals

27%

Somozas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

65%

Somozas (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

UD Ourense at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.97 · 80 matches

Somozas away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

UD Ourense attack 1.74 + Somozas defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.47

Somozas attack 1.05 + UD Ourense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

UD Ourense scores more

48%

level

26%

Somozas scores more

26%

UD Ourense at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UD Ourense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff