Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UD Logroñés vs Real Avilés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
Preview
16:00
Real Avilés
Real Avilés
2/28/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26
43%
UD Logroñés
model favours
43%25%32%

UD Logroñés and Real Avilés have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

UD Logroñés43%
×Draw25%
Real Avilés32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.52
Real Avilés
1.26

UD Logroñés creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.05
Real Avilés
1.84

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Real Avilés
2.00

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Real Avilés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
68%
UD Logroñés or Real Avilés
75%
Draw or Real Avilés
57%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
21%
Real Avilés wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
78%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
45%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
20%
Real Avilés 1+ goals
72%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
36%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
58%
Real Avilés (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.84, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.05 + Real Avilés defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Avilés attack 1.84 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
43%
level
25%
Real Avilés scores more
32%

UD Logroñés at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Logroñés
LWWWW
Avilés
DLLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: UD Logroñés host Real Avilés

February 28, 2027: UD Logroñés take on Real Avilés in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.