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UD Logroñés vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
Preview
16:00
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
2/14/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24
44%
UD Logroñés
model favours
44%31%25%

UD Logroñés and Mérida AD have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
69%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

UD Logroñés44%
×Draw31%
Mérida AD25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.16
Mérida AD
0.80

UD Logroñés creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 37 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.05
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
75%
UD Logroñés or Mérida AD
69%
Draw or Mérida AD
56%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
19%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
69%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
32%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
11%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
55%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
19%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
64%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.05 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
44%
level
31%
Mérida AD scores more
25%

UD Logroñés at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Logroñés
LWWWW
AD
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés vs Mérida AD — Match Preview

UD Logroñés face Mérida AD on February 14, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.