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UD Logroñés vs Lugo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
Preview
16:00
Lugo
Lugo
1/31/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22
44%
UD Logroñés
model favours
44%31%25%

Lugo score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
71%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

UD Logroñés44%
×Draw31%
Lugo25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.13
Lugo
0.76

UD Logroñés creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.05
Lugo
0.84

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Lugo
1.21

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Lugo+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Lugo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
75%
UD Logroñés or Lugo
69%
Draw or Lugo
56%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
19%
Lugo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
68%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
31%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
11%
Lugo 1+ goals
53%
Lugo 2+ goals
18%
Lugo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
64%
Lugo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Lugo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.05 + Lugo defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Lugo attack 0.84 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
44%
level
31%
Lugo scores more
25%

UD Logroñés at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • When Lugo score first, they win 88% of the time
  • Both teams score in only 19% of Lugo’s matches
  • 68% of Lugo’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Lugo win just 21% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Logroñés
LWWWW
Lugo
DWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés vs Lugo — Match Preview

UD Logroñés face Lugo on January 31, 2027 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.