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UD Logroñés vs Barakaldo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
Preview
16:00
Barakaldo
Barakaldo
11/29/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14
42%
UD Logroñés
model favours
42%30%28%
1–0
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

UD Logroñés42%
×Draw30%
Barakaldo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés
1.15
Barakaldo
0.88

UD Logroñés creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés
1.05
Barakaldo
1.08

allows per match

UD Logroñés
0.68
Barakaldo
1.24

finishing

UD Logroñés+0.00on par
Barakaldo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés ↓

Barakaldo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

UD Logroñés or draw
72%
UD Logroñés or Barakaldo
70%
Draw or Barakaldo
58%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés wins by 2+
18%
Barakaldo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UD Logroñés 1+ goals
68%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
32%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
11%
Barakaldo 1+ goals
59%
Barakaldo 2+ goals
22%
Barakaldo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
60%
Barakaldo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Barakaldo away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés attack 1.05 + Barakaldo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Barakaldo attack 1.08 + UD Logroñés defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

UD Logroñés scores more
42%
level
30%
Barakaldo scores more
28%

UD Logroñés at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "UD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Logroñés
LWWWW
Barakaldo
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UD Logroñés face Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with UD Logroñés hosting Barakaldo. Match starts November 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.