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UD Logroñés II vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
10/13/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 8Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

UD Logroñés II67%
×Draw18%
Casalarreina14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Logroñés II
2.33
Casalarreina
0.98

UD Logroñés II creates 138% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 91 away

creates per match

UD Logroñés II
3.09
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

UD Logroñés II
0.61
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

UD Logroñés II+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Logroñés II ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

UD Logroñés II or draw
86%
UD Logroñés II or Casalarreina
82%
Draw or Casalarreina
33%

Winning margin

UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
44%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
90%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
67%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
41%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
62%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
26%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
82%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Logroñés II at home — creates 3.09, concedes 0.61 · 79 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Logroñés II attack 3.09 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.33

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

UD Logroñés II scores more
67%
level
18%
Casalarreina scores more
14%

UD Logroñés II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UD Logroñés II vs Casalarreina

UD Logroñés II beat Casalarreina 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.