Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UD Caravaca vs Unión Molinense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Unión Molinense
Unión Molinense
10/29/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

UD Caravaca39%
×Draw29%
Unión Molinense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.14
Unión Molinense
1.01

UD Caravaca creates 13% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 67 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
Unión Molinense
1.18

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
Unión Molinense
0.97

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
Unión Molinense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Unión Molinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
68%
UD Caravaca or Unión Molinense
71%
Draw or Unión Molinense
61%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
16%
Unión Molinense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
68%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
32%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
11%
Unión Molinense 1+ goals
64%
Unión Molinense 2+ goals
27%
Unión Molinense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
55%
Unión Molinense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Unión Molinense away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.97 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Unión Molinense defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.14

Unión Molinense attack 1.18 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
39%
level
29%
Unión Molinense scores more
32%

UD Caravaca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: UD Caravaca 1–0 Unión Molinense

UD Caravaca beat Unión Molinense 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.