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UD Caravaca vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

UD Caravaca
UD Caravaca
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bala Azul
Bala Azul
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 14Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

UD Caravaca47%
×Draw28%
Bala Azul25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UD Caravaca
1.31
Bala Azul
0.87

UD Caravaca creates 51% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 51 away

creates per match

UD Caravaca
1.31
Bala Azul
0.90

allows per match

UD Caravaca
0.84
Bala Azul
1.31

finishing

UD Caravaca+0.00on par
Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UD Caravaca ↓

Bala Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

UD Caravaca or draw
75%
UD Caravaca or Bala Azul
72%
Draw or Bala Azul
53%

Winning margin

UD Caravaca wins by 2+
22%
Bala Azul wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

UD Caravaca 1+ goals
73%
UD Caravaca 2+ goals
38%
UD Caravaca 3+ goals
14%
Bala Azul 1+ goals
58%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
22%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

UD Caravaca (draw refunded)
65%
Bala Azul (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UD Caravaca at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 83 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UD Caravaca attack 1.31 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + UD Caravaca defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

UD Caravaca scores more
47%
level
28%
Bala Azul scores more
25%

UD Caravaca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UD Caravaca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: UD Caravaca 1–1 Bala Azul

UD Caravaca and Bala Azul drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Martínez El Morao in Caravaca de la Cruz.