UCV 0–2 Deportivo La Guaira: Result & Stats

UCV

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo La Guaira

5/26/2024

Primera División · Apertura - Quadrangular - 6Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

UCV40%

×Draw27%

Deportivo La Guaira33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UCVExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.14

UCV

1.30

Deportivo La Guaira

1.14

UCV creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 148 away

1.40

creates per match

1.22

1.05

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

UCV

1.40

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

UCV

1.05

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

UCV+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UCV ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

UCV or draw

67%

UCV or Deportivo La Guaira

73%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

60%

Winning margin

UCV wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

UCV 1+ goals

73%

UCV 2+ goals

37%

UCV 3+ goals

14%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

UCV (draw refunded)

55%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UCV at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.05 · 84 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UCV attack 1.40 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + UCV defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

UCV scores more

40%

level

27%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

33%

UCV at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "UCV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff