Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Uberlandia vs Itabirito — Mineiro - 2 2026

Uberlandia
Uberlandia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Itabirito
Itabiritoadvanced
Caique 77'
Aslen 45+7'
Vinicius Balotelli 69'
Ramon 49'
Cruzamento 15'
8/2/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Hexagonal Final - 8Estádio Municipal João Havelange

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Uberlandia46%
×Draw25%
Itabirito30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uberlandia
1.59
Itabirito
1.23

Uberlandia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Uberlandia
1.91
Itabirito
1.45

allows per match

Uberlandia
1.00
Itabirito
1.27

finishing

Uberlandia+0.00on par
Itabirito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uberlandia ↓

Itabirito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Uberlandia or draw
70%
Uberlandia or Itabirito
75%
Draw or Itabirito
54%

Winning margin

Uberlandia wins by 2+
23%
Itabirito wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Uberlandia 1+ goals
80%
Uberlandia 2+ goals
47%
Uberlandia 3+ goals
21%
Itabirito 1+ goals
71%
Itabirito 2+ goals
35%
Itabirito 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Uberlandia (draw refunded)
61%
Itabirito (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uberlandia at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Itabirito away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uberlandia attack 1.91 + Itabirito defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.59

Itabirito attack 1.45 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Uberlandia scores more
46%
level
25%
Itabirito scores more
30%

Uberlandia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Uberlandia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Cruzamento
45+7'
Aslen
49'
Ramon
69'
Vinicius Balotelli
77'
Caique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Uberlandia vs Itabirito

Itabirito beat Uberlandia 3-2 in Mineiro - 2 on August 2, 2023.

Goals: Cruzamento (15'), Aslen (45+7'), Ramon (49'), Vinicius Balotelli (69'), Caique (77').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal João Havelange in Uberlândia, Minas Gerais.