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U. San Martin vs Deportivo Coopsol — Segunda División 2018

U. San Martin
U. San Martin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Coopsol
Deportivo Coopsol
5/6/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

U. San Martin43%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Coopsol30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. San Martin
1.43
Deportivo Coopsol
1.15

U. San Martin creates 24% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 91 away

creates per match

U. San Martin
1.23
Deportivo Coopsol
1.18

allows per match

U. San Martin
1.13
Deportivo Coopsol
1.63

finishing

U. San Martin+0.00on par
Deportivo Coopsol+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. San Martin ↓

Deportivo Coopsol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U. San Martin or draw
70%
U. San Martin or Deportivo Coopsol
74%
Draw or Deportivo Coopsol
57%

Winning margin

U. San Martin wins by 2+
21%
Deportivo Coopsol wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

U. San Martin 1+ goals
76%
U. San Martin 2+ goals
42%
U. San Martin 3+ goals
17%
Deportivo Coopsol 1+ goals
68%
Deportivo Coopsol 2+ goals
32%
Deportivo Coopsol 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U. San Martin (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Coopsol (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. San Martin at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.13 · 40 matches

Deportivo Coopsol away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. San Martin attack 1.23 + Deportivo Coopsol defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.43

Deportivo Coopsol attack 1.18 + U. San Martin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

U. San Martin scores more
43%
level
26%
Deportivo Coopsol scores more
30%

U. San Martin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "U. San Martin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: U. San Martin vs Deportivo Coopsol

U. San Martin and Deportivo Coopsol drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 6, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.