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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Toluca
Toluca
E. Salvio 44' (pen)
C. Huerta 38'
J. Dinenno 1'
C. González 31' (pen)
4/16/2023Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 15Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas46%
×Draw25%
Toluca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.56
Toluca
1.17

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 149 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.59
Toluca
1.24

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.09
Toluca
1.53

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par
Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Toluca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
71%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Toluca
75%
Draw or Toluca
54%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
24%
Toluca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
79%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
46%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
21%
Toluca 1+ goals
69%
Toluca 2+ goals
33%
Toluca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
62%
Toluca (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Toluca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Toluca attack 1.24 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
46%
level
25%
Toluca scores more
29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. SalvioU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · M
8.2

Match Events

1'
J. Dinenno↳ P. Bennevendo
28'
Carlos GonzalezPenalty confirmed
30'
Arturo Ortiz
31'
C. GonzálezPenalty
32'
Jesus Venegas
33'
Juan Dinenno
38'
C. Huerta↳ E. Salvio
44'
E. SalvioPenalty
45+3'
Brayan Angulo
46'
C. Orrantía← J. Venegas
46'
Camilo Sanvezzo← B. Angulo
47'
Ulises Rivas
54'
L. Fernández← B. García
55'
Jean Meneses
57'
J. Molina← G. del Prete
59'
Jean MenesesCard upgrade
60'
Jean Meneses
63'
Maximiliano Araújo
68'
J. Ruvalcaba← U. Rivas
79'
Andrés Mosquera
85'
Higor Meritão← E. Salvio
85'
Diogo de Oliveira← J. Dinenno
85'
A. Rodríguez← É. López
86'
J. Rodríguez← M. Ruiz

Possession

35%U.N.A.M.

Shots

13U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

47%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Toluca
Overview
35%Possession65%
13Total Shots13
4Corners7
16Fouls18
Shots
13Total Shots13
5On Target3
6Off Target4
2Blocked6
8Inside Box8
5Outside Box5
Passing
35%Possession65%
279Total Passes527
213Accurate Passes453
76%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls18
3Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Toluca 3-1 in Liga MX on April 16, 2023.

Goals: J. Dinenno (1'), C. González (31' pen), C. Huerta (38'), E. Salvio (44' pen).

Toluca controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..