U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Toluca — Liga MX 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 148+ matches
U.N.A.M. - Pumas46%
Toluca29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 33% more chances
Season form · 148 home / 149 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches
Toluca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 149 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Toluca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56
Toluca attack 1.24 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Leon
Tigres UANL
Monterrey
Cruz Azul
Club America
Necaxa
Pachuca
Club TijuanaToluca
Puebla
Santos Laguna
Lobos Buap
Atlas
Guadalajara ChivasU.N.A.M. - Pumas
Monarcas
Club Queretaro
VeracruzCruz AzulClub AmericaU.N.A.M. - PumasSantos LagunaMonterreyTigres UANLTolucaClub QueretaroMonarcasPachucaGuadalajara ChivasPueblaLobos BuapLeonClub TijuanaNecaxaAtlasVeracruzIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
U.N.A.M. - Pumas host Toluca on Tuesday, 11 January 2022 at 03:00. The match is part of the Liga MX 2026/2027 season.
Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 5–0 Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Toluca 5-0 in Liga MX on January 11, 2022.
Goals: Rogério (31', 64'), Diogo (61'), J. Ruvalcaba (69'), Higor Meritão (81').
Toluca controlled possession (54%) and registered 5 shots to 26.
The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..