U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Toluca: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Toluca

B. Mendoza 90+3'

C. González 56'

E. Gigliotti 90+2'

9/1/2019

Liga MX · Apertura - 8Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 148+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas46%

×Draw25%

Toluca29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchToluca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.17

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.56

Toluca

1.17

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 33% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 149 away

1.59

creates per match

1.24

1.09

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.59

Toluca

1.24

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.09

Toluca

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Toluca+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Toluca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

71%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Toluca

75%

Draw or Toluca

54%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

24%

Toluca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

79%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

46%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

21%

Toluca 1+ goals

69%

Toluca 2+ goals

33%

Toluca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

62%

Toluca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Toluca away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.59 + Toluca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

Toluca attack 1.24 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

46%

level

25%

Toluca scores more

29%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

I. Malcorra

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · F

8.2

Match Events

46'

B. Mendoza← D. Cabrera

48'

Juan Vigón

56'

C. González↳ J. Vigón

65'

R. Ruíz← Diego

65'

A. Canelo← F. Mancuello

71'

G. León← William da Silva

75'

Luis Hernández

75'

K. Escamilla← P. Barrera

82'

Jeison Angulo

87'

J. Iturbe← J. Vigón

90+2'

E. Gigliotti↳ L. Hernández

90+3'

B. Mendoza↳ I. Malcorra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Toluca

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots6

0Corners2

9Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots6

5On Target2

9Off Target1

2Blocked3

8Inside Box1

8Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

410Total Passes357

334Accurate Passes277

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5