U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0–0 Mazatlán: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mazatlán

7/9/2023

Liga MX · Apertura - 2Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas52%

×Draw23%

Mazatlán25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchMazatlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.17

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.80

Mazatlán

1.17

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 54% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.62

creates per match

0.97

1.37

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Mazatlán

0.97

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Mazatlán

1.98

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

-0.77scores less than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Mazatlán-0.77scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Mazatlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

75%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Mazatlán

77%

Draw or Mazatlán

48%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

29%

Mazatlán wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

83%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

54%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

27%

Mazatlán 1+ goals

69%

Mazatlán 2+ goals

33%

Mazatlán 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

68%

Mazatlán (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Mazatlán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.98 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Mazatlán defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.80

Mazatlán attack 0.97 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

52%

level

23%

Mazatlán scores more

25%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

H. González

Mazatlán · G

8.3

Match Events

41'

Gustavo del Prete

46'

J. Ruvalcaba← U. Rivas

54'

Jair Díaz

61'

Luis AmarillaPenalty cancelled

70'

S. Trigos← G. del Prete

70'

R. Ergas← A. Aldrete

70'

G. Fernández← E. Salvio

76'

77'

81'

86'

86'

88'

F. Venegas← A. Medina

89'

Cesar Huerta

89'

Bryan Colula

90+5'

Hugo Gonzalez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Mazatlán

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots8

11Corners3

7Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots8

3On Target2

6Off Target3

8Blocked3

13Inside Box3

4Outside Box5

Passing

55%Possession45%

395Total Passes339

324Accurate Passes260

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2