U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1–2 Cruz Azul: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Cruz Azul

Diogo 65'

G. Carneiro 45'

R. Huescas 26'

9/18/2022

Liga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas30%

×Draw25%

Cruz Azul44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchCruz Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.51

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.21

Cruz Azul

1.51

Cruz Azul creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

1.62

creates per match

1.65

1.37

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.62

Cruz Azul

1.65

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.37

Cruz Azul

0.79

+0.47scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more

Cruz Azul+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Cruz Azul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

56%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Cruz Azul

75%

Draw or Cruz Azul

70%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

13%

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

70%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

34%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

12%

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

78%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

44%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

41%

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.79 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Cruz Azul defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cruz Azul attack 1.65 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

30%

level

25%

Cruz Azul scores more

44%

Cruz Azul at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Corona

Cruz Azul · G

8.9

Match Events

26'

R. Huescas↳ Á. Romero

45'

G. Carneiro

46'

Diogo← G. Del Prete

59'

M. Estrada← G. Carneiro

59'

A. Escoboza← Á. Romero

65'

Diogo

66'

J. Ruvalcaba← P. Bennevendo

67'

M. García← J. Rodríguez

76'

R. Baca← C. Rodríguez

76'

C. Tabó← U. Antuna

85'

Rafael Baca

89'

Juan DinennoGoal cancelled

90+1'

Jorge Ruvalcaba

90+2'

Christian Tabó

90+5'

L. Abram← R. Guerrero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Cruz

Overview

54%Possession46%

22Total Shots11

7Corners5

8Fouls4

Shots

22Total Shots11

11On Target5

7Off Target4

4Blocked2

15Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

54%Possession46%

414Total Passes362

351Accurate Passes286

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves10

Discipline

8Fouls4

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3