U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Cruz Azul: Result & Stats

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Cruz Azul

J. Dinenno 45+2', 37'

C. Tabó 83'

4/6/2022

CONCACAF Champions League · Semi-finalsEstadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas48%

×Draw26%

Cruz Azul26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U.N.A.M. - PumasExpected goals in this matchCruz Azul

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.03

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

1.50

Cruz Azul

1.03

U.N.A.M. - Pumas creates 46% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

2.14

creates per match

1.21

0.86

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

2.14

Cruz Azul

1.21

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

0.86

Cruz Azul

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.00on par

Cruz Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Cruz Azul →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw

74%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Cruz Azul

74%

Draw or Cruz Azul

52%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+

24%

Cruz Azul wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals

78%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals

44%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals

19%

Cruz Azul 1+ goals

64%

Cruz Azul 2+ goals

28%

Cruz Azul 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)

65%

Cruz Azul (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.21, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 2.14 + Cruz Azul defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Cruz Azul attack 1.21 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more

48%

level

26%

Cruz Azul scores more

26%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Dinenno

U.N.A.M. - Pumas · F

8.6

Match Events

36'

J. Domínguez← J. Escobar

37'

40'

45+2'

46'

64'

Diogo← Rogério

74'

A. Álvarez← W. Corozo

75'

J. Galindo← L. López

76'

A. Mayorga← A. Aldrete

76'

C. Tabó← U. Antuna

77'

I. Morales← S. Giménez

78'

83'

86'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Cruz

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots11

3Corners5

11Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots11

5On Target3

7Off Target5

2Blocked3

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

383Total Passes342

304Accurate Passes266

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides5