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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumasadvanced
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul
J. Vigón 89'
C. González 41'
J. Dinenno 37', 4'
12/7/2020Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - Semi-finalsEstadio Olímpico de Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas30%
×Draw25%
Cruz Azul44%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.21
Cruz Azul
1.51

Cruz Azul creates 25% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.62
Cruz Azul
1.65

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.37
Cruz Azul
0.79

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.47scores more
Cruz Azul+0.13scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Cruz Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
56%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Cruz Azul
75%
Draw or Cruz Azul
70%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
13%
Cruz Azul wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
70%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
34%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
12%
Cruz Azul 1+ goals
78%
Cruz Azul 2+ goals
44%
Cruz Azul 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
41%
Cruz Azul (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.37 · 11 matches

Cruz Azul away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.79 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.62 + Cruz Azul defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cruz Azul attack 1.65 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
30%
level
25%
Cruz Azul scores more
44%

Cruz Azul at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cruz Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. DinennoU.N.A.M. - PumasU.N.A.M. - Pumas · F
8.2

Match Events

4'
J. Dinenno
31'
Roberto Alvarado
37'
J. Dinenno
39'
Alan MozoPenalty confirmed
41'
C. González
45'
Joaquín MartínezGoal cancelled
50'
J. Rodríguez← M. Mayorga
65'
Juan Iturbe
65'
Y. Yotún← R. Alvarado
67'
Juan Vigón
71'
F. Waller← L. López
76'
S. Saucedo← J. Iturbe
89'
S. Giménez← J. Martínez
89'
J. Vigón↳ A. Mozo
90+1'
Josué Domínguez← R. Baca

Possession

56%U.N.A.M.

Shots

12U.N.A.M.

Pass accuracy

53%U.N.A.M.

Statistics

U.N.A.M.Cruz
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots6
4Corners4
15Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots6
7On Target1
2Off Target3
3Blocked2
8Inside Box4
4Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
391Total Passes284
297Accurate Passes194
76%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls13
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 4–0 Cruz Azul

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Cruz Azul 4-0 in Liga MX on December 7, 2020.

Goals: J. Dinenno (4', 37'), C. González (41'), J. Vigón (89').

U.N.A.M. - Pumas controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Universitario in D.F..