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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club America — Liga MX 2026

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Club America
Club America
4/21/2024Liga MXLiga MX · Clausura - 16Estadio Olímpico Universitario

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

U.N.A.M. - Pumas37%
×Draw26%
Club America36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.33
Club America
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.55
Club America
1.26

allows per match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1.36
Club America
1.11

finishing

U.N.A.M. - Pumas+0.45scores more
Club America-0.16scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U.N.A.M. - Pumas ↓

Club America →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U.N.A.M. - Pumas or draw
64%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas or Club America
74%
Draw or Club America
63%

Winning margin

U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins by 2+
17%
Club America wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1+ goals
74%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2+ goals
38%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3+ goals
15%
Club America 1+ goals
73%
Club America 2+ goals
38%
Club America 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (draw refunded)
51%
Club America (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.36 · 10 matches

Club America away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U.N.A.M. - Pumas attack 1.55 + Club America defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Club America attack 1.26 + U.N.A.M. - Pumas defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

U.N.A.M. - Pumas scores more
37%
level
26%
Club America scores more
36%

U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "U.N.A.M. - Pumas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga MX: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2–1 Club America

U.N.A.M. - Pumas beat Club America 2-1 in Liga MX on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Universitario in D.F..